From the Arab Spring to today, violent unrest has reshaped political and business landscapes alike. Companies that fail to anticipate it risk disruption, reputational damage, and staff safety. Here’s how to spot it before it erupts.

After falling steadily from their 1960s peak and hitting historic lows between 2010 and 2019, coups have crept back into the headlines. From 2020–2023, we saw a modest resurgence, largely in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Perfect foresight isn’t possible. Unless you’ve planted a microphone in a general’s office, the exact timing of a coup is nearly impossible to predict. What you can do is track the structural drivers, short-term indicators, and spark-like catalysts that make one more or less likely. That’s the basis of anticipatory intelligence.

Charts are great. Heatmaps, incident maps, colourful graphs, they’re staples in any analyst’s toolkit. They help us convey complex messages quickly and spot where things are happening. But here’s the problem: they don’t tell us why those things are happening, and without the why, you’re not doing foresight. You’re just summarising the past.

Predictive intelligence - forecasting what could be coming up, rather than reacting to what has happened - can unlock significant gains for intelligence teams, but only if it drives action and is plugged into the right processes

Better intelligence than your competitors means faster, more confident decisions—and fewer costly mistakes.

How corporate intelligence teams can leverage the benefits of AI, to enhance their analysis, improve efficiency, and elevate the strategic value of their team.

Why embracing the grey areas is an essential skill for intelligence analysts.

Why you need a corporate intelligence programme, in 90 seconds

Simple steps to improve your intelligence writing.

How the intelligence cycle looks in a corporate environment.