How can you anticipate…violent unrest
When the Arab Spring swept across North Africa and the Middle East, toppling governments and driving people into the streets, it seemed to many outsiders as though it had come from nowhere. Of course, it hadn’t. The region had been a slowly drying tinder pile for years, with oppressive regimes, mismanagement, and lack of opportunity steadily worsening people’s lives. The literal spark came when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight in a Tunisian market. While it would have been impossible to predict that precise act, the type of event that could ignite unrest, and the fact the region was primed for it, was clear to observers.
For organisations operating in fragile or contested environments, anticipating unrest is not optional. It is central to protecting people, assets, and investments.
So how can we do that better?
Why Companies Should Care About Violent Unrest
When the Arab Spring protests toppled the Egyptian government, companies operating there scrambled to evacuate employees while waiting for calm to return. Reactive crisis management carries heavy financial and reputational costs, not to mention heightened risks to the safety of staff and operations.
Even when unrest doesn’t trigger emergency evacuations, it disrupts business. Mass demonstrations can paralyse logistics, prevent staff from reaching worksites, and expose assets to vandalism or damage.
Reputational risk also matters. Companies seen as too close to an unpopular government may become direct targets for protesters seeking proxies for their anger.
The Fault Lines (Structural Drivers)
The drivers of violent unrest often build up over years or decades, slowly putting pressure on a system. They are rarely isolated; they interact and reinforce one another. Some of the key ones at play in driving violent unrest are:
Institutional Fragility (The Anocracy Trap): Violence is most likely in regimes that are neither fully autocratic nor fully democratic. These “anocracies” are characterised by limited competition and repression. Their average annual risk of political violence is 3.7%, compared to 0.8% for democracies.
Horizontal Inequality: Unrest is strongly linked to inequalities between groups defined by identity, ethnicity, or status. Exclusionary policies, especially those enforced by state repression, heighten the risk by reinforcing the perception that there is no alternative for expressing frustration.
Weak State Capacity: Where governments cannot provide basic services or enforce order, unrest is more likely to escalate.
Youth Exclusion: Large young populations facing unemployment, blocked mobility, and lack of recognition are fertile ground for mobilisation.
The Pressure Build (Indicators)
Beyond the underlying drivers, medium-term warning signs indicate when tensions are actively building:
Human Rights Abuses and State Repression: Countries where governments violate human rights, particularly the right to physical integrity (e.g., torture, extrajudicial killings), face a higher risk for violent unrest.
Economic Distress: Inflation, subsidy cuts, and poor fiscal health amplify grievances and weaken social cohesion.
Protest History and Dynamics: Countries with frequent demonstrations are more prone to escalation. Even peaceful protests matter: the more numerous and widespread they become, the higher the chance of miscalculation by either side, triggering unrest.
Environmental Stress: Prolonged droughts reduce food and water access, inflame grievances, and strain already weak governments. Crop failure and livestock losses drive desperation among rural communities; food price spikes hit urban centres; drought-driven migration heightens competition for jobs and services.
The Spark (Catalysts)
Drivers and pressures usually need a trigger to ignite unrest. Common sparks include:
Contested Elections and Political Transitions: These moments create winners and losers, amplifying concerns that demands for reform will go unmet.
Economic Shocks and Austerity: Sudden price rises, subsidy removals, or budget cuts can destabilise societies already under strain.
Violent Crackdowns: Heavy-handed state responses, especially when protesters are killed, often transform grievances into mass mobilisation. The U.S. protests after the killing of George Floyd in 2020 illustrate how a single incident can crystallise deeper frustrations.
Case Study: Kenya, 2024
Kenya’s mid-2024 unrest shows how structural pressures, visible warning signs, and sudden catalysts can converge into explosive upheaval.
Drivers: Kenya has a median age of 20, with 70% of its population under 30. Many felt squeezed by unemployment, rising living costs, inequality, and perceptions of corruption and elitist governance. Longstanding frustration over debt and fiscal mismanagement deepened the sense of exclusion.
Indicators: In early 2024, the government introduced the Finance Bill, aimed at raising revenues and improving the tax-to-GDP ratio. Proposed measures included steep new taxes on salaries and essentials such as bread. Youth-led networks mobilised online, encouraging citizens to lobby MPs. When this failed, demonstrations were organised for 18 June. Given existing tensions, the mobilisation was a clear warning sign that escalation was possible.
Catalysts: On 18 June, security forces dispersed protests with tear gas and arrested over 200 people. On 20 June, Parliament advanced an amended version of the bill despite opposition, and several protesters were killed. This combination ignited the “Seven Days of Rage”: nationwide demonstrations, security crackdowns, and on 25 June, the storming of Parliament, part of which was set alight. At least 20 people were killed that day in Nairobi alone. President Ruto ultimately withdrew the bill and dissolved his cabinet, but protests continued with broader demands for political change.
The unrest left dozens dead, supply chains paralysed, and investor confidence shaken. It also marked a generational shift: digitally-driven, leaderless movements capable of mobilising rapidly and at scale.
The Takeaway
Cities don’t catch fire overnight. The warning signs are always there, if you know where to look. Our platform is built to spot them: mapping vulnerabilities, monitoring pressure points, and flagging the sparks that ignite unrest. Don’t wait for the headlines. Anticipate them.